Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3264
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 3264 · MIA → BWI
departs 6:31 PM ET · arrives 9:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Wed 11/11 24%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 41%
Sat 11/14 37%
Sun 11/15 47%
Mon 11/16 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed – in 24h
–
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.