Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3484
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 3484 · DCA → FLL
departs 3:21 PM ET · arrives 6:06 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Wed 11/11 41%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 43%
Sun 11/15 40%
Mon 11/16 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±10 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at FLL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FLL?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Arrivals into FLL at that hour are often late
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
FLL (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.