Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3500
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow
WN 3500 · STL → DCA
departs 3:51 PM CT · arrives 7:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 34%
Sat 11/14 26%
Sun 11/15 44%
Mon 11/16 28%
Tue 11/17 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±2 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.