Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3541
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 3541 · TPA → PIT
departs 2:31 PM ET · arrives 4:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 33%
Sat 11/14 18%
Sun 11/15 26%
Mon 11/16 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±3 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at PIT that day
↑
2pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
PIT usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PIT (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.