Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3541
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 3541 · TPA → PIT
departs 2:31 PM ET · arrives 5:02 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12 26%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 18%
Sun 11/15 26%
Mon 11/16 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from TPA are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PIT
↓
PIT usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PIT (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.