Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 410
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow
WN 410 · LAX → MSY
departs 11:23 AM PT · arrives 5:01 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 46%
Sat 11/14 40%
Sun 11/15 44%
Mon 11/16 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
11am departures from LAX are often late
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.