Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 410
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 410 · LAX → MSY
departs 11:32 AM PT · arrives 5:14 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12 41%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 40%
Sun 11/15 44%
Mon 11/16 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
57%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed – in 24h
–
57%
Yes 57%
No 43%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
11am departures from LAX are often late
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.24 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.