Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4177
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow
WN 4177 · TPA → BUF
departs 3:04 PM ET · arrives 5:46 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 33%
Sun 11/15 36%
Mon 11/16 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at BUF that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
BUF usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BUF (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.42 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.