Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4177
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 4177 · TPA → BUF
departs 3:04 PM ET · arrives 5:51 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12 38%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 36%
Mon 11/16 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
BUF usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
BUF (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 8.33333 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.