Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4374
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow
WN 4374 · BWI → SAN
departs 3:46 PM ET · arrives 6:25 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 50%
Sat 11/14 34%
Sun 11/15 54%
Mon 11/16 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±2 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,333 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.05 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.