Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4374
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 4374 · BWI → SAN
departs 3:46 PM ET · arrives 6:26 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12 38%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 34%
Sun 11/15 54%
Mon 11/16 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at SAN that day
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at BWI that day
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.