Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4681
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow
WN 4681 · ELP → LAS
departs 1:21 PM MT · arrives 2:18 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 45%
Sun 11/15 46%
Mon 11/16 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±7 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
ELP is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.