Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4681
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 4681 · ELP → LAS
departs 1:21 PM MT · arrives 2:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12 31%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 46%
Mon 11/16 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±15 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Gusts to 26 kt forecast at LAS that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.24 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.