Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4785
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 4785 · LGA → DAL
departs 1:59 PM ET · arrives 5:03 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 38%
Sat 11/14 17%
Sun 11/15 27%
Mon 11/16 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±8 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at LGA that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from LGA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.55 in
DAL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.