Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4785
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 4785 · LGA → DAL
departs 1:57 PM ET · arrives 4:52 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12 50%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 17%
Sun 11/15 27%
Mon 11/16 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at LGA that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.25 in
DAL (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.