Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4859
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow
WN 4859 · BWI → TPA
departs 4:43 PM ET · arrives 7:22 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 32%
Sat 11/14 25%
Sun 11/15 29%
Mon 11/16 27%
Tue 11/17 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.