Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4859
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 4859 · BWI → TPA
departs 4:43 PM ET · arrives 7:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Thu 11/12 30%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 25%
Sun 11/15 29%
Mon 11/16 27%
Tue 11/17 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed – in 24h
–
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.