Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 586
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 586 · ATL → DCA
departs 1:52 PM ET · arrives 3:42 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Tue 11/10 19%
Wed 11/11 15%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 26%
Sun 11/15 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±7 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.