Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 830
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 830 · BWI → BHM
departs 2:51 PM ET · arrives 4:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 28%
Sun 11/15 29%
Mon 11/16 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at BHM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BHM?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
2pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.08 in
BHM (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.