Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 830
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 830 · BWI → BHM
departs 2:51 PM ET · arrives 4:02 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12 33%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 29%
Mon 11/16 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at BHM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BHM?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
2pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
BHM (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.