Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1546 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

AA 1546 · GND → MIA

departs 4:09 PM AST · arrives 7:04 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±4 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

GND (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1546 · GND → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?