Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 16 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

AA 16 · SFO → JFK

departs 12:33 PM PT · arrives 9:06 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

76% chance · ±13 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
21%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
22%
Cancelled
10%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 37 kt, 0.6 in of rain forecast at SFO that day

↑ 12pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Other factors

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts37 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.61 in

JFK (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.36 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 16 · SFO → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?