Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 16 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, November 14

AA 16 · SFO → JFK

departs 12:30 PM PT · arrives 9:16 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

JFK (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,167 ft Visibility2.66667 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 16 · SFO → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?