Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1867 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

AA 1867 · DCA → MSY

departs 2:48 PM ET · arrives 4:45 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 57h before departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Arrivals into MSY at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

MSY (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1867 · DCA → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?