Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1877 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

AA 1877 · PVD → CLT

departs 2:14 PM ET · arrives 4:30 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 533 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at PVD that day

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PVD (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling533 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.32 in

CLT (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1877 · PVD → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?