Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1954 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

AA 1954 · SAN → CLT

departs 12:00 PM PT · arrives 7:39 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.36 in

CLT (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1954 · SAN → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?