Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2509 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13 Tomorrow

AA 2509 · CLT → ORD

departs 2:53 PM ET · arrives 4:05 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

ORD (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2509 · CLT → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?