Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2704 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

AA 2704 · RDU → CLT

departs 4:15 PM ET · arrives 5:17 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from RDU are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLT (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2704 · RDU → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?