Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3076 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

AA 3076 · MIA → LGA

departs 3:36 PM ET · arrives 6:40 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±18 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
31%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility0.7 mi Precip0.39 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3076 · MIA → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?