Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3113 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

AA 3113 · ORD → JFK

departs 2:28 PM CT · arrives 5:39 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±8 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at JFK that day

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling4,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

JFK (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precip0.47 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3113 · ORD → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?