Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3113 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, November 14

AA 3113 · ORD → JFK

departs 2:26 PM CT · arrives 5:42 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,733 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3113 · ORD → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?