Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3243 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

AA 3243 · DCA → BOS

departs 2:52 PM ET · arrives 4:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

78% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
21%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at BOS that day

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

BOS (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.55 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3243 · DCA → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?