Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3249 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

AA 3249 · DCA → FLL

departs 3:26 PM ET · arrives 6:12 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FLL?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Arrivals into FLL at that hour are often late

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FLL

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FLL (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3249 · DCA → FLL

Odds over time

How late will it get to FLL?