Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3264 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

AA 3264 · MSY → DCA

departs 2:06 PM CT · arrives 5:43 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from MSY are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3264 · MSY → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?