Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 554 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

AA 554 · MIA → LAX

departs 3:35 PM ET · arrives 6:28 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±11 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↑ 3pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling4,067 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 554 · MIA → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?