Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 609 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

AA 609 · PHX → MIA

departs 1:33 PM MT · arrives 7:48 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 609 · PHX → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?