Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 916 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

AA 916 · BOG → MIA

departs 3:11 PM -05 · arrives 6:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ MIA is prone to delays

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOG

↓ 3pm departures from BOG are usually not late

Weather at each end

BOG (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 916 · BOG → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?