Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2500
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
DL 2500 · JFK → MIA
departs 3:10 PM ET · arrives 6:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Thu 11/12 50%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 29%
Sun 11/15 33%
Mon 11/16 25%
Tue 11/17 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±11 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at JFK that day
↑
3pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
MIA is prone to delays
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.41 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.