Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5419
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
OO 5419 · SBP → SFO
departs 6:37 PM PT · arrives 7:51 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12 46%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 43%
Mon 11/16 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
84%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
84%
Leave 15+ late
82%
Arrive 1h+ late
75%
Cancelled
20%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
84%
Yes 84%
No 16%
Leave SBP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
82%
Yes 82%
No 18%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
75%
Yes 75%
No 25%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
13%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
29%
Over 2 hours late
31%
Cancelled
20%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 38 kt, 0.6 in of rain forecast at SFO that day
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↓
SBP usually runs smoothly
↓
SBP is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
SBP (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.56 in
SFO (destination)
Gusts 38 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.65 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.