Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1086 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

UA 1086 · DEN → YVR

departs 3:50 PM MT · arrives 7:04 PM MST

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at YVR more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YVR?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at YVR

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Arrivals into YVR at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YVR (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1086 · DEN → YVR

Odds over time

How late will it get to YVR?