Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1983 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

UA 1983 · ORD → SNA

departs 4:20 PM CT · arrives 6:48 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SNA?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.24 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1983 · ORD → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?