Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2165 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

UA 2165 · IAH → BNA

departs 4:20 PM CT · arrives 6:27 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2165 · IAH → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?