Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2165 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, November 14

UA 2165 · IAH → BNA

departs 4:33 PM CT · arrives 6:41 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±4 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling9,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2165 · IAH → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?