Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 399 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

UA 399 · ORD → BWI

departs 4:08 PM CT · arrives 7:12 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±1 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ BWI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

BWI (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 399 · ORD → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?