Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 399 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, November 14

UA 399 · ORD → BWI

departs 4:02 PM CT · arrives 7:07 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ BWI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 399 · ORD → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?