Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 543 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

UA 543 · SFO → LAS

departs 2:15 PM PT · arrives 4:00 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

84% chance · ±15 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
15%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
32%
Over 2 hours late
36%
Cancelled
9%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 37 kt, 0.8 in of rain forecast at SFO that day

↑ 2pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Other factors

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts37 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.61 in

LAS (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling11,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 543 · SFO → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?