Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 543 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, November 14

UA 543 · SFO → LAS

departs 2:17 PM PT · arrives 4:02 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±9 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ Gusts to 32 kt forecast at LAS that day

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

LAS (destination) Gusts32 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 543 · SFO → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?