Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1196
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Tomorrow
WN 1196 · DEN → PDX
departs 6:27 PM MT · arrives 8:12 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 35%
Sun 11/15 41%
Mon 11/16 42%
Tue 11/17 37%
Wed 11/18 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±10 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at PDX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PDX?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from DEN are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PDX (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.