Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1196
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 1196 · DEN → PDX
departs 7:33 PM MT · arrives 9:19 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Fri 11/13 38%
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 41%
Mon 11/16 42%
Tue 11/17 37%
Wed 11/18 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at PDX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PDX?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
7pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PDX (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.