Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1262
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 1262 · AUS → OAK
departs 4:07 PM CT · arrives 5:54 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 37%
Sun 11/15 39%
Mon 11/16 32%
Tue 11/17 36%
Wed 11/18 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±4 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Gusts to 28 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at OAK that day
↑
4pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.47 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.